Greek PM feigns shock over EU-IMF reform plans

On Friday the IMF, EU and ECB (known locally as the Troika) announced their joint proposals concerning the future of the Greek economy and actions needed  to reduce the country's massive debt load which is set to exceed 150% of GDP this year. The most controversial element of the plan is the privatisation of 50 billion euros of public assets over the next three years and was protrayed in much of the media as a sell off of the family silver at bargain basement prices. Only the rabidly pro-PASOK Ethnos newspaper dared to present the news that troika representatives had issued an apology as a victory for the government.

In the face of such stiff opposition Greek Prime minister Giorgos Papandreou claimed to have blind sided by the EU-IMF saying that the press conference had given the impression that the Greek government was simply following the orders given it by the country's creditors.The reality of the situation is that the so-called argument is a rather crude PR trick designed to spin the fact that the ruling PASOK party have already agreed to carry out the measures demanded and is attempting to sell the public the idea that they are still in charge and not just acting as locally recruited management representatives.

The ploy has failed to convince even ardent government media supporters in the privately run SKAI channel who condemned it as a cheap theatrics. Indeed it is hard to believe that after months of negotiations the head of the Greek government was unaware of all the details of the EU-IMF strategy and was taken by surprise.

Actually, if you read Papandreou's actual complaint he was apparently not criticising the content of the Troika's press conference but the manner in which it was presented. Government minister for education Anna Diamantopoulou even went as far as to suggest that Troika representatives be banned from making public statements during a radio interview this morning.

Many Greek journalists and commentators have derided the plan to raise the 50 billion as impractical given the depressed state of the economy and the Greek state's abysmal record in selling off public assets. For example more than seven years after hosting the Olympic games in 2004 much of the expensive facilities built are falling apart, forgotten and neglected despite the billion dollar price tag.

Another fear is that given the deeply corrupt nature of Greek politics much of the assets will be sold off in sweet heart deals to friends and supporters of the government and so the sacrifices made by the Greek people will be wasted as little of the money will actually make it into public offers. These concerns are no just limited to a few crackpots but are daily reinforced as scandal after scandal involving officials from both of the largest political parties are swept under the carpet. Only last week charges against those involved in the massive Vatopedi monastery land swap scandal were dropped despite the fact that the case resulted in the Greek state losing hundreds of millions in lost revenue.Likewise revelations in Der Spiegel last year that members of the ruling PASOK party including an ex - minister of defence took bribes in return for buying German submarines have resulted in no official reaction of behalf of the country's justice system.

Given the inability of the political system to police itself the idea of politicians handling billions of dollars in real estate and public property is an invitation to corruption on a scale not seen since the debacle that followed the fall of the Soviet Union when massive fortunes were made by ruthless “businessmen” who used bribes and threats to amass fortunes by taking control of state owned industries.

Greece goes on strike

Yesterday the Greek parliament wAS in the process of debating a raft of new labour laws that would radically change the pay and conditions of  most employees and is likely to trigger a fall in wages that will further depress living standards of most Greeks, perhaps pushing them back to levels not seen since the 80's. I do not know the outcome of the vote nor do I particularly care as the result is a forgone conclusion and in the final analysis the decision is not in the hands of elected officials in Athens but rather those of  technocrats in the IMF, European Commission and the European Central Bank. What the ruling PASOK government cares to call the outcome of the vote is merely window dressing and should not be confused with anything resembling democratic process.

However, away from the parliamentary puppet theatre the country today is set to come to a standstill as trade unions in the public and private sector have declared a general strike for today. Trains, buses, planes are  not running and much of Greece's infrastructure has shut down for the durqtion. Across the country people are gathering to take part in protest marches and demonstrations as I write this, angry and disappointed by their rulers.

I will be on the streets trying to take photographs and video of today's events and will be providing updates whenever I have internet access and time. To follow the events on Twitter use the #imfgr hastag. Most of it will be in Greek, of course but Google Translate does a good job of rendering Greek into English and other languages. Alternatively, you could use the following Greek words in your search engines and then translate.

ΑΠΕΡΓΙΑ (STRIKE)

ΕΛΛΑΔΑ (GREECE)

ΑΘΗΝΑ (ATHENS)

ΠΟΡΕΙΑ (MARCH)

"Our job is to report the news, not fabricate it. That's the government's job."

In my last post I talked about the role of the media and especially TV in presenting the consequences of the current economic crisis in Greece. I was particularly scathing of the role of the state run channels and the pro - government private stations in their efforts to distort the effects of the IMF/EU mandated austerity measures and present whatever PASOK party does in the best possible light.

Yesterday representatives of the IMF, EU commission and the European Central Bank held a press conference setting out the terms of the next installment of bailout money and outlining what the Greek government had and had not achieved in terms of reducing public spending and raising tax revenue. Considering the recommendations presented are set to change the whole of the Greek economy and involves massive upheavals, wage cuts and job losses  you would think that coverage of the event by the Greek press would be intense. Instead not one station broadcast the conference live and limited their reporting to short snippets which included luke warm praise by the troika of Greeec'e efforts so far. This was the line that was presented by most of the TV news bulletins along with prononouncements by experts that Greece had no choice but to accept such changes.

Instead there was extensive live reporting of a routine visit by a the head of the Cypriot republic which was attended by the prime minister, Giorgos Papandreou. Rather than reporting live a story which is set to effect the vast majority of the Greek population the media chose to focus attention on a mundane diplomatic story. As I said before the government and its supporters in the private sector are desperately trying to hide the fact that despite all the rhetoric about protecting jobs and living standards the ruling PASOK party have been forced time and time again to back down and accept everything the country's creditors have put forward.At the same time they have been required to engage in Orwellian feats of linguistic gymnastics in which cuts are called readjustmenst and savage criticsm termed positive feedback. In fact anything that covers the truth that the country is bankrupt and no longer responsible for virtually any aspect of economic policy.

 Indeed the IMF, EU and ECB by timing their report on Greece till after the country's recent elections (out of 27 EU countries, only Greece's report was delayed) you could argue that they have directly involved themselves in national politics. If the current measures which were inspired by the Eurostat's report on the economy had been announced on 27th October as happened with every other EU member) there is a good chance that Giorgos Papandeou's party would have suffered massive defeat and the country would be in the run up to national elections as has happened in Ireland.

The quote in the post's title is originally from V For Vendetta.

Greek authorities take no chances on the eve of Polytechniou Day

Riot police break up protest march in Thessaloniki, Greece, originally uploaded by Teacher Dude's BBQ.

It seems that the Greek nation has finally accepted the inevitable and got on board with the austerity package demanded by the country's creditors. It must be true since the prime minister, Giorgos Papandreou said so during his speech after the results of Sundays local elections. So did IMF head Dominique Strauss Kahn in an interview on French radio when he said that the victory of the ruling PASOk party showed that Greek had understood the need for change.

What both leaders choose to ignore was the enormous drop in turnout by Greek voters, in some cases 50% less than in previous elections in 2006 and the growing dislocation between the country's ruled and rulers. While both major parties made some gains the overall trend is one of ever intensifying disenchantment with the current political system. Less an endorsment of the country's politicians than an understanding that the country no longer controls its destiny, no matter which party is nominally in charge.

Tomorrow marks the 37th anniversary of the Polytechnic uprising which set in motion a chain of events that led to the overthrow of the military dictatorship that had siezed power in 1967. Every year students and others march in Greece's major cities in commemoration of those who died to restore freedom and democracy. The day is often used as a platform by political groups to demonstrate against unpopular government policies. This year's anniversary is likely to repeat this tradition and the presence of 7000 additional police officers in the centre of the capital is testiment to how worried the government is about the marches turning into something more violent.

Already there have been clashes in Athens between youths and the police around the university of Athens campus the scene of many of the violent confrontations during the 2008 uprising which caused billions of euros worth of damage.

Polytechniou day as it is known in Greece will prove to be an acid test over whether young Greeks in particular have accepted the massive cuts in public spending and job losses proposed by the European Union, European Central Bank and IMF.

Given the anger and frustration felt by much of the population over the continued economic crisis there is a very real possibility that a miscalculation by the authorities could have drastic consequences.

For more on last year's 17th November events click here.

News from the front

Lost archives, originally uploaded by Teacher Dude's BBQ.

This week has proven to be an unending litany of disappointments and bad news as far as the Greek economy is concerned. Wherever you look in the media the news keeps on getting worse and worse. Unemployment figures for August show that the official rate has reached 12.2% and is set to rise still further as thousands of small business close down every month.

Also the long awaited government deficit figures proved to be just as bad as everyone predicted with the official figure set to go from 13 to 15.5% of GNP in 2009. Eurostat will make public the final figures on Monday, just one day after the polls close.

This came at the same time as newspapers reported that Athens attempts to raise tax revenues were in deep trouble, plagued with technical problems and organisational confusion. Instead of the predicted 700 million euro addition to state coffers, just 40 million has so far been found. With the economy shrinking at an unprecedented rate (down 4.5 % in the third quarter) businesses and professionals are refusing or resisting payment of what is widely considered to be an arbitary and unjust attempt by the government to grab whatever revenue it can.

Higher than expected debt levels combined with a falling tax revenues mean that finance minister Giorgos Papakonstantinos will have to cut spending even further if Greece is to meet the goals set down by the IMF, EU and European Central Bank. While prime minister, Giorgos Papandreou has repeatedly said that there will be no new austerity measures, few even in his own party are convinced that he will be able to convince Greece's lenders to renegotiate terms, no matter how unpopular the measures have become.

Beyond the numbers the reality of the situation is that ordinary Greeks are being hammered by the effects of the changes which have hit the vulnerable hardest and left the richest relatively untouched. People are being called upon to make impossible choices; Can we pay the electricity bill AND the motgage this month? What comes first; car insurance or new clothes for the kids?

Fear of what the future is almost palable with worry and anxiety drawn on people's faces as they queue in the supermarket or ride the bus. In cafes the talk is more often than not about money, or rather the lack of it. In Greece with its weak social safety net the family still serves as a buffer against the worst, yet even that institution is struggling to seal with the worst economic figures since the 50's. If the situation does not change in the near future even family may not be enough to get people through.

Perhaps the worst aspect of the pesent situation is the awful feeling that there seems to be no end to present financial woes. There is the fear that the future offers nothing and that all that lies ahead is more poverty and stagnation. This view is particularly stronge amongst the young who are suffereing the worst in terms of unemployment with 1 in 3 of 15-24 year olds unemployed and only a small minority employed in jobs that match their qualifications.

In 2008 the whole country went up in flames following the shooting of a 15 year old by police in central Athens, the violence and duration of the unrest were fuelled in large part by the anger and frustration felt by young Greeks over the nation's dire economic situation and disgust at a political system in which corruption, nepotism and patron client relations stiffle development and lavishly reward mediocrity and incompetence.

Since then the situation has grown so bad that 2008 can almost be considered part of a golden agewhen work, even though badly paid and unrewarding was at least available.

Will Greece go to the polls in December? The elections no one wants to win.

Greek elections 2007, originally uploaded by Teacher Dude's BBQ.

In contrast to previous years the run up to the local elections in November is a lacklustre affair without the usual frenzy of electioneering that marks Greek politics. In the streets few people are particularly riveted by the choices on offer and despite a concerted effort by the media to inject drama into the event many have turned their back on politicians, and instead are concerned with more immediate worries such as paying the bills and making ends meet.

No one in the present political set up, either on the left or the right set up has been able to turn an intense feeling of voter dissatisfaction into concrete electoral support. Obviously, the great loser in all this is the centre left PASOK party led by prime minister Giorgos Papandreou whose popularity has nose dived in the wake of the austerity measures imposed at the behest of the EU, ECB, IMF troika. However, the main opposition party, the conservative New Democracy has been unable to made much headway in the polls tainted as they are by their role in the country's economic meltdown. Even their newly elected leader Antonis Samaras's populist rhetoric has failed to convince many other than the party faithful.

On the other hand smaller parties of the left and right of the two main parties are also struggling to generate voter interest. On the far right LAOS, led by Giorgos Karatzaferis has failed to poach votes from New Democracy in the numbers it was expecting, the result, in part of its parliamentary support of the PASOK in passing the legislation and measures demanded by Greece's lenders.

Nor is the picture much better on the left with people wary of the Greek Communist party's old school ideological stance and its unwavering allegiance to the state run socialist economic model favoured by the Soviet Union in its heyday. The other reformist left wing coalitions languish in the polls, internally divided and struggling to get their message across in the media.

Underlying the growing indifference of Greek voters to the choices on offer is the realisations that whoever is in power their ability to change the present economic climate is limited as virtually all major economic decisions taken have to be okayed in Brussels, Strasburg and Washington. In addition an even deeper feeling of distrust of those in power comes from the deeply rooted idea that the country's rules are above the law and so free to abuse their position. This is hardly a new innovation and one that is central to modern Greek mindset but what has changed is the fact that the political caste's greed and incompetence has brought the nation to the edge of the abyss and so is no longer considered the acceptable price of getting things done.

Such extreme notions are reinforced by parliament's handling of recent corruption and bribery scandals involving the cases such asVatopedi Monestary, Siemens and the 2004 Athens Olympic games. These are just a few of the dozens of scandals that have racked Athens over the last few years and yet despite endless investigations not one politician has been convicted of a single misdemeanor, let alone spent time in jail. Many ordinary Greeks have come to the conclusion that whoever is in power, nothing will change and that once in charge the first priority of politicians is to line their own and their family's pockets at the expense of everyone else.

Given such cynicism and anger political analysts and leaders both left and right are worried about how this backlash will effect the vote in November and how the political landscape will be changed. Already the prime minister has warned that a major defeat for his party may result in the country going the polls again in a round new parliamentary elections. The national daily, Nea also published reports that Papandreou is considering a snap election as soon as December 12th in such an eventuality.

For Papandreou and many others the November elections are in reality a referendum on the bailout package and should his party lose badly that would require his government seek a new popular mandate. On the other hand political commentators have interpreted his words as political blackmail, a high stakes bluff aimed at getting reticent PASOK voters to the polls. If so, the costs of such a strategy are high indeed with the world's money markets jittery over the prospect of a change in government in Athens. Over the week Greek CDS's soaring once again above 800 points reflecting the financial world's unease at the prospect of a vote.

If Greece does go to the polls in December, both Papandreou and Samaras face the same dilemma that whoever wins is in no position to change the basic parameters of the current bailout deal and therefore will be associated in the popular imagination with job losses, painful spending cuts and a severe economic downturn.

The trick will be how to run a credible campaign yet not win, a feat the previous New Democracy leader, Kostas Karamanlis pulled off during his lukewarm campaign in 2009. Faced with immediate financial meltdown Karamanlis called early elections is September much to the annoyance of members of the party who wanted to wait till Spring 2010. However, they were unaware of just how dire the country's finances were and that by running early and losing New Democracy would still remain a coherent political force that could present itself as a credible alternative to PASOK once they had dealt with the financial mess at huge political cost.

Like the card game Black Maria in which the aim is to foist the Queen of Spades unto your opponent both main parties are supposedly gearing up to slug it out at the polls whilst secertly hoping that they will not have the misfortune to be in power.

Greek PM's press conference fails to convince voters

Greek prime minister, Giorgos Papandeou (left) leaving the St Demetrios cathedral - Thessaloniki, originally uploaded by Teacher Dude's BBQ.

Last night Greek prime minister took part in a Q & A session with journalists from the country's largest TV stations. The decision to organise such an event in the run up to the local elections in November was criticised by opposition parties who consider that the Papandreou is campaigning on behalf of his beleaguered PASOK party who have been trailing in the polls, affected by the harsh austerity measures that have seen living standards plummet as job losses, higher taxes and galloping inflation have combined to make for a perfect storm for those on lower incomes such as the unemployed and pensioners.

The harsh new economic reality facing Greeks can be seen in a slew of reports that show that many household are now struggling to pay basics such as power and phone bills. The state run electricity board says that 1 in 4 bills are overdue whilst the OTE telecommunications corporation has 500,000 unpaid accounts to deal with. Even in Greater Athens area, which one of richer parts of the nation 1 in 11 are receiving food handouts via breadlines according to research carried out by the Athens University of Economics recently. In Greece's second city, Thessaloniki, home to over a million nearly half the population is living on either savings or loans whilst another 40% say that they can barely make ends meet.



Even consumption of basics such as bread has dropped by 30% whilst other areas of the economy such as real estate and car sales have ground to a virtual halt. The Greek chamber of commerce says that 4,000 small businesses are closing every month with thousands more being added to unemployment figures.

With such a bleak outlook Giorgos Papandreou decided to hold a press conference to set out his party's policies and to explain to the nation what he believes has to be done to save Greece from bankruptcy.

The interview which was carried out by seven journalists lasted two hours and was followed by millions of viewers nationwide. In the first round journalists were allowed to ask one question and one follow up. A recipe which allowed the PM plenty of wiggle room and produced a predictably sonorific result as Papandreou was free to simply set out party positions that have long been made clear in previous briefings. While the questions were hard hitting, the lack of follow up meant they were easily sidestepped with waffle and set speeches.

The second half of the interview proved more interesting with reporters able to pursue points made and get the prime minister to do more than simple PR.



However,the basic tenet of Papandreou's message remained the same that the current crisis was the results of years of fiscal mismanagement that the previous New Democracy administration had failed to take seriously and that if Greece did not have any other choice but to implement the painful measures set down by the EU and IMF. He also made it clear that his government sees the forthcoming elections as a referendum on the measures intimating that if PASOK suffered a serious defeat then this would be seen as a loss of the popular mandate necessitating national elections in the near future.

For Papandreou the choice is clear; either accept the cuts in public services and wages set out or vote for the opposition New Democracy party led by Antonis Samaras whose brand of populist rhetoric is full of heat and passion but light on concrete proposals on exactly how different his right of centre party would deal with a 400 billion debt load without severe cuts in public spending or higher taxation.



Yet despite growing dissatisfaction with both major parties it seems business as usual with both sides making lavish promises to voter in order to persuade people to support them. The ruling PASOK party has vowed to help local income families and farmer with extra funds before the end of the year, though where exactly the money is coming from is unclear especially with so many employees of the state run organisations and pensioners who have been waiting months to be paid. Next week heating oil distributors have threatened to suspend deliveries from 1st November in protest over delays over the return of tax payments promised earlier. Likewise hospital report running low on basic supplies after pharmacutical companies stopped taking new order until the government pays outstanding debts, some going back years.

However, the 600lb gorilla in the room is the possibility of still harsher cuts when Eurostat revises Greek debt figures for 2009. The organisation delayed publishing figures citing the need for more time to untangle Greece's often tangled web of public spending statistics until 15th November just after the second round of local elections. This has been seen in many quarters are an attempt not to upset PASOK's election chances still further with more bad news. On the one hand Papandreou has stated on a number of occasions that there will be no further measures for wage earners and pensioners whilst European Commissioner Olli Rehn has made it clear that higher than expected debt load will mean more sacrifices on the part of Greece in 2011.

Attending celebrations in Thessaloniki today Giorgos Papandreou was met with boos and jeers by some worshippers outside the Saint Demetrios cathedral and was quickly whisked inside the building with church bells ringing in order cover the sounds of protests from TV crews covering the event. Hundreds of riot police were also on duty in the surrounding area ready to keep disgruntled state employees at a safe distance while people shouting anti-government slogans were swiftly confronted by uniformed and plain clothes officers in the crowd.

The Greek economic crisis's 600lb gorilla in the room

IMF - What "Internal Devaluation" really means for Greece., originally uploaded by Teacher Dude's BBQ.

I'm sure than you have that old medical joke, "the operation was a success but the the patient died" a thousand times but I can't help but recall it when I see on the state - run ET1 and NET news bulletins reports of how quietly optimistic the IMF/EU/ECB are about the progress Athens has been making in implementing the economic reforms needed before they approve the latest installment of the bailout package.

However, nowhere in the constant round of self - congratulation and back slapping are you going to hear anything about the issue that is most worrying to Greeks, namely unemployment. Currently, the official figure is 570,000 or 11.7% however, behind these numbers hide some truely horrifying facts. In some areas such as the Attiki region and Ionian islands the number of those looking for work has risen by up 50% in just one year. According to the latest OECD predictions unemployment is set to reach nearly 15% in 2014 whilst the Greek Trade Union Conference or GSEE (ΓΣΕΕ) is talking about a million jobless by next year out of a total labour force of 5 million.

Even this figure may be an underestimate since unemployment figures only include those signing on, which does not include many of those who have been unemployed more than one year who are considered to be "economically inactive" rather than unemployed or simply do not bother signing on as their benefits have run out. Nor are those working in the black economy (tourism and construction and even education are rife with employers who refuse to pay contributions) without national insurance who cannot claim unemployment benefit.

No provision has been made by the government for the tremendous social disruption likely to be caused by having one in five or even one in four of the work force unemployed, a number which is going to be higher if you happen to be a woman, disabled, under 25 or over 50. No mention was made of unemployment in the joint European Commission, European Central Bank and IMF upbeat press announcement concerning Greece's latest installment of the bailout package.

It's hard to consider any economic plan which produces joblessness on a scale not seen since the Great Depression as a success, yet that is exactly what the Greek government representatives and their supporters in much of the media are trying to do. There seems little awareness of the degree of social dislocation unemployment of such a scale is bound to produce. instead we are feed a steady diet of statistics and projections which are based on economic modela which do not take into account the conditions on the ground nor the fact that many official economic indicators are little more than educated guesses, the product of a state apparatus that does not even know how many people it employs.

On the other hand whilst hundreds of thousands of pensioners face cuts in their incomes to get permssion to borrow 9 billion euros the Greek government has found 25 billion to give to banks in order to improve their credit worthiness, which in addition to the 26 billion given in 2008 amounts to 15% of GDP or nearly four times the amount Greece spends on education per annum

NB the picture is NOT real but a piece of photoshopped fun. Just a reminder for those who had their sense of humour removed instead of tonsils when young.

IMF/EU/ECB - Resistance is anything but futile

IMF - Work will set you free, originally uploaded by Teacher Dude's BBQ.

One of the worst aspects of the current economic crisis here in Greece is the way it has sucked the hope out of so many people's lives. The current austerity measures offer nothing in the way of hope for the millions of Greeks on lower incomes whose backs are already up against the wall. This sense of dispair limited to any one group or region but rather has spread like some infectious disease throughout the social spectrum.

Talking to friends the conversation always seems to find its way round to the financial mess the country finds itself in. Everyone I know is worried about the future since the massive economic dislocation we are all going through seems to offer nothing but years of poverty and deprivation, negating decades of hard won progress.

For the young the sense of a future deferred, cancelled, even is strongest. What do they have to look forward to? Unemployment, low wage dead end jobs, a life spent living with their parents? After so many years of study and struggle they are coming to the realisation that much of what they were working towards has disappeared and nothing is being offered to take its place.

Prime minister Giorgos Papandreou may talk about the light at the end of the tunnel but few believe his words as they are the same broken promises that the Greek political class have been manking for years. The same wooden language expressing ideas that no one listens to anymore (not helped by the fact that Papandreou is a monumentally awful public speaker).

The fact is that that the recently elected PASOK party has absolutely no popular mandate for the changes they are making to pension schemes and wages since none of the recent measures were in their pre-election manifesto. Papandreou insists that his party had no idea of the size of the deficit they were inheriting on taking power last year (a contention vehermently dened by the head of the Bank of Greece who says that the head of the opposition knew of the massive overshot in public spending figures). Yet it is a measure of the collapse in public trust in the present political system that few are willing to believe him.

Lacking a mandate the leadership of the PASOK party has resorted to fear and intimidation both within and outside parliament to push through legisaltion demanded by the IMF/EU/EB troika. Any MP refusing to follow the party line faces immediate dismissal form the party whilst outside parliament the presence of riot police has become a permanent fixture of demonstrations of any size.

However, this is just the beginning, the real battles lie ahead of us in September when Greek politics traditionally revive after the lethargy of a long, hot summer. Also the effects of the first wave of cuts in wages, rising unemployment and the fall in income from tourism are likely to combine to form a perfect poltical storm. In the face of such massive unrest it is hard to see how Papadreou is going to maintain party discipline amongst PASOK backbenchers already deeply upset about the route the party is taking. Likewise the party base is unhappy with being identified with such wildly unpopular policies.

In addition there is every likelyhood that the Greece will fail to find enough revenue to fulfill Troika (IMF/EU/ECB) targets and will be forced to borrow even more to pay the bills. Already a second rise in VAT has been imposed on an economy struggling to become competitive, a clear indication that government measures to increase revenue are not proving as effective as Papandreou promised.

With a spiralling debt, massive drop in economic activity and steadily rising unemployment how long is it before Athens is forced to renegotiates its debt load?